China Strikes Back: 84% Tariffs on U.S. Goods Will Reshape Freight Markets

A Freight Storm Is Brewing

With China’s retaliatory 84% tariffs now in effect, freight markets are bracing for sudden shifts in demand, lane congestion, and price volatility, particularly across ocean and air freight.

Here’s what’s happening under the surface:

• Ocean Freight:

  • Blank sailings and port realignments are likely as export volumes to China fall off and carriers rebalance capacity.

  • Expect rate swings on transpacific routes, especially if demand plummets or rerouting to alternative export markets creates bottlenecks elsewhere (Southeast Asia, Europe, etc.).

  • If capacity shifts toward intra-Asia trade or EMEA lanes, this could spike freight costs for importers still relying on China.

• Air Freight:

  • High-value or time-sensitive goods affected by tariffs may switch from ocean to air in a rush to beat effective dates or reallocate inventory.

  • That urgency can drive short-term spikes in air rates, especially on outbound routes from the U.S. to Asia.

  • Ongoing uncertainty may also cause volatility in airfreight forward booking, as shippers hedge against new restrictions or countermeasures.

• Carrier Pricing Behavior:

  • Carriers may introduce new surcharges or adjust fuel/tariff-related fees to capture profit in unpredictable markets.

  • Those with strong contracts and guaranteed capacity will weather the storm better, and those without? Expect surprise charges and spot-rate dependence.

What You Can Do (Before Volatility Hits Harder):

If your business touches international freight, especially ocean and air, now’s the time to get strategic, not reactive. Here’s where to focus:

1. Audit Your Export Exposure
Which SKUs, partners, or clients are tied to China or other retaliatory markets? You can’t manage what you don’t measure.

2. Review Your Contracts with a Logistics Consulting Partner
Tariff clauses, routing flexibility, accessorials — this is where cost creep hides. A logistics consultant can help dissect your freight agreements and ensure they’re built for resilience, not just routine.

3. Rebuild Your Landed Cost Models
Update your models with real tariff data, new surcharges, and freight rate shifts. If your teams are still using last quarter’s assumptions, you’re already behind.

4. Rethink Freight Mix and Carrier Strategy
This is not the time to be locked in with one mode or provider. Evaluate where you're most vulnerable, and where diversification could soften the blow.

5. Bring Data to the Carrier Conversation
Engage your providers early, and with leverage. A consulting-led approach can help you benchmark market conditions and develop contingency plans before rates spike further.

6. Scenario Plan Across Teams
This isn’t just a logistics issue, it’s financial. Align operations, finance, and procurement around a few clear models for Q2 and Q3. Know what you’ll do if things worsen, or stabilize.

Strategy beats reaction, and timing is everything.

- Logistics Strategies
A newsletter by ICC Logistics
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